Earlier this week, I joined the Grounded Podcast to talk maybe-ceasefire, the costs of war, and why this entire mess has been a devastating distraction from the more important conversation we should be having.
The markets responded to news of an Iran war ceasefire only modestly — rising by about as much as they’d fall is response to one of the president’s angrier Truth Social posts. In other words, they’re saying: “we’re cautiously hopeful, but not convinced.” And you shouldn’t be convinced either. When someone has genuinely good news — an airtight deal — they show you the receipts. They hold the press conference and release the document. Economics teaches us that if someone won’t show you their hand, you should infer it’s the worst possible result. No photo on the dating profile means something.
And while we’ve spent a year and a half consumed by this administration’s circus — through both a trade war and now a real war — we’ve been almost entirely distracted from what I believe to be the most consequential question of our time: what does the AI revolution mean for our kids’ futures? Unlike every prior technological disruption, which mostly replaced brawn, this is a cognitive revolution and it comes straight for white-collar work. I study this for a living and I’ll be honest with you: I don’t have a clean answer for what your kid should study. I don’t say this to depress you — but because this question deserves our full attention. Right now, it’s being crowded out by ballroom cost overruns and reflecting pool algae.
It’s not all bad news: we are, right now, in the richest country in the history of the world at the richest moment in human history. The question is whether we’re serious enough — and competent enough — to make it fuller.
Father’s Day Sale
