This administration promised a manufacturing revival. What we got is an aging country hiring nurses and aides—and outside of health care, the economy has shed jobs.
Another excellent post, Justin, although I might push back on the importance of wages on inflation (not your point that real wage growth is negative, because that is correct and a problem). Excess aggregate demand and supply shocks (at least in the short run) are the key determinants of inflation. In most cases, wages respond to prices, not the other way.
Hope to see you at ELC and at John’s memorial seminar.
Insightful, Justin. I’m also an econometrician but at 81, have a bit more bark on me than you at your tender age. I started professional life in the Steel Industry, Youngstown Steel, and was there in 1974 when Lykes Brothers Steamship Company pulled off the first LBO, and sold all the piece parts. 15,000 people lost their jobs that day (mostly men) along with another 75,000 or so who their wages supported in the community. Today the city has shrunk to half its former size, and has an economy based mostly on the local university and Health Care. Seems your point is made.
Justin's points are well taken and The Fed's, tools won't help much here since they are not industry specific. For both economic and security purposes we need to at least maintain critical manufacturing capabilities. We can't rely on other countries to help us since Mr Trump has alienated too many of them. Only about 20% of our economy is currently tied to manufacturing and that may decrease as AI increases productivity and reduces the number of such jobs. So we need to redesign our economy to have everyone gainfully employed. This won't happen overnight.
Are there data on total entries into jobs and total job leavings in the past month rather than the net change in total numbers of jobs in the past month?
Am I, a social demographer, correct in assuming that jobs made vacant by deporting workers that are filled by folks not previously working are netted out?
Or, are some of the “new jobs” due to replacing folks who had those jobs? Is some of this healthcare increase due to replacing folks who’ve left these jobs or is all the increase due to brand new positions?
Thanks Justin. You do realise that the Fed guy “quiet Kevin” has to do the job according to his terms of his employment. Anything the unqualified rapist tells him to do comes before the truth. Do you have access to the real numbers so you can tell us the reality without the dicktators hype?
Zooming out, employment in sectors tied closely to heavy infrastructure and data center expansion has risen by roughly 320,000 jobs since 2023 beyond normal economic trends according to: “The jobs apocalypse is postponed. An AI jobs boom is here. Initial effects of the technology on employment look positive”
The Economist September 4 2026:
Manufacturers added 43,000 jobs over a recent three-month stretch alone—the strongest gain since late 2022—boosted heavily by AI-related equipment, electrical gear, and data center investments.
Bloomberg News September 4, 2026.
The rumored demise of the American worker has been greatly—and rather awkwardly—exaggerated. While doomsayers promised that AI would confidently delete our jobs by now, it turns out the robots actually need a massive, human-built entourage of concrete mixers, copper wire, and heavy machinery just to stay turned on. Instead of an AI-induced pink slip parade, we got a blue-collar building boom.
The Wolfers Smile Indicator is ⤴️ - great! I appreciate these takes on which numbers do seem trustworthy to someone with your expertise. Economics delivered with expertise + experience helps me as a regular person.
I know Justin doesn't wander too deep into politics but here is one of those interesting cases of public perception versus actual data. As Justin alluded to, there's broad public sentiment that "the economy sucks." Also, widespread sense that "Trump & his admin lie... a lot." So, as mentioned in the video, a large part of the public has doubts (at minimum!) about this positive jobs report. The sign on every other corner showing $/gal, the package of hamburger at the grocery for your Labor Day cookout - these things give you bad vibes. So our internal vibe-ometers cancel out the positive thought about the jobs report... besides, the vast majority of us are NOT in the number that got a new job last month.
So Trump doesn't really get much lift from this one report. Feels similar to Biden & Dems in 2024 especially. The objective good news elements in the economy couldn't offset the internal vibes that things sucked (stipulated, the election outcome had many other factors - I'm talking about the widely held overall perception of the economy, not anyone's specific claim about what most influenced their vote). Seems like different party, same story - we'll see if comparable impact on election, this time though in opposite political direction
Another excellent post, Justin, although I might push back on the importance of wages on inflation (not your point that real wage growth is negative, because that is correct and a problem). Excess aggregate demand and supply shocks (at least in the short run) are the key determinants of inflation. In most cases, wages respond to prices, not the other way.
Hope to see you at ELC and at John’s memorial seminar.
Insightful, Justin. I’m also an econometrician but at 81, have a bit more bark on me than you at your tender age. I started professional life in the Steel Industry, Youngstown Steel, and was there in 1974 when Lykes Brothers Steamship Company pulled off the first LBO, and sold all the piece parts. 15,000 people lost their jobs that day (mostly men) along with another 75,000 or so who their wages supported in the community. Today the city has shrunk to half its former size, and has an economy based mostly on the local university and Health Care. Seems your point is made.
Justin's points are well taken and The Fed's, tools won't help much here since they are not industry specific. For both economic and security purposes we need to at least maintain critical manufacturing capabilities. We can't rely on other countries to help us since Mr Trump has alienated too many of them. Only about 20% of our economy is currently tied to manufacturing and that may decrease as AI increases productivity and reduces the number of such jobs. So we need to redesign our economy to have everyone gainfully employed. This won't happen overnight.
Are there data on total entries into jobs and total job leavings in the past month rather than the net change in total numbers of jobs in the past month?
Am I, a social demographer, correct in assuming that jobs made vacant by deporting workers that are filled by folks not previously working are netted out?
Or, are some of the “new jobs” due to replacing folks who had those jobs? Is some of this healthcare increase due to replacing folks who’ve left these jobs or is all the increase due to brand new positions?
Thanks Justin. You do realise that the Fed guy “quiet Kevin” has to do the job according to his terms of his employment. Anything the unqualified rapist tells him to do comes before the truth. Do you have access to the real numbers so you can tell us the reality without the dicktators hype?
Does spending in the arm of our K shaped economy account for the growth in Healthcare, Leisure and Hospitality?
Zooming out, employment in sectors tied closely to heavy infrastructure and data center expansion has risen by roughly 320,000 jobs since 2023 beyond normal economic trends according to: “The jobs apocalypse is postponed. An AI jobs boom is here. Initial effects of the technology on employment look positive”
The Economist September 4 2026:
Manufacturers added 43,000 jobs over a recent three-month stretch alone—the strongest gain since late 2022—boosted heavily by AI-related equipment, electrical gear, and data center investments.
Bloomberg News September 4, 2026.
The rumored demise of the American worker has been greatly—and rather awkwardly—exaggerated. While doomsayers promised that AI would confidently delete our jobs by now, it turns out the robots actually need a massive, human-built entourage of concrete mixers, copper wire, and heavy machinery just to stay turned on. Instead of an AI-induced pink slip parade, we got a blue-collar building boom.
The Wolfers Smile Indicator is ⤴️ - great! I appreciate these takes on which numbers do seem trustworthy to someone with your expertise. Economics delivered with expertise + experience helps me as a regular person.
I know Justin doesn't wander too deep into politics but here is one of those interesting cases of public perception versus actual data. As Justin alluded to, there's broad public sentiment that "the economy sucks." Also, widespread sense that "Trump & his admin lie... a lot." So, as mentioned in the video, a large part of the public has doubts (at minimum!) about this positive jobs report. The sign on every other corner showing $/gal, the package of hamburger at the grocery for your Labor Day cookout - these things give you bad vibes. So our internal vibe-ometers cancel out the positive thought about the jobs report... besides, the vast majority of us are NOT in the number that got a new job last month.
So Trump doesn't really get much lift from this one report. Feels similar to Biden & Dems in 2024 especially. The objective good news elements in the economy couldn't offset the internal vibes that things sucked (stipulated, the election outcome had many other factors - I'm talking about the widely held overall perception of the economy, not anyone's specific claim about what most influenced their vote). Seems like different party, same story - we'll see if comparable impact on election, this time though in opposite political direction
MAGA will claim that Americans are being employed in vacancies created by ICE.
I thought we’d see the employment number decrease since my American brothers and sisters wouldn’t want those jobs.
So, I’m glad too that the numbers are good, but wondering what’s the real reason why.