Our Jekyll-and-Hyde Economy

What Halloween candy and Idaho Weddings taught us this week (and how it connects to the ballot box)

Another week, another avalanche of economic news. At the end of the week, I sit down with America’s favorite economics journalist Stacey Vanek Smith to sort through it all on Off the Clock. Think of it as two mates sitting down over a (spooky!) beer and doing what good friends do: talking economics. Join us as we try to sort through what really mattered, what’s noise, and a few nuggets of good news.

Here are the issues we think are worth a deeper dive:

Halloween comes right before Election Day

As an immigrant to this country, I didn’t grow up with Halloween. One of my favorite quirks of the American calendar is that you spend a night celebrating fear, and then a few days later, you go and you vote. I’m honestly not sure which is scarier. This year, it looks like the economy is going to be a big part of Tuesday night.

We’re living in a Jekyll-and-Hyde economy

That’s Stacey’s framing, and it’s one that makes a lot of sense. We skipped Chart Versus Chart this week, but Stacey went ahead and made charts anyway. I don’t know why she did it, but I’m not complaining. She said there’s some kind of chart-shaped hole in her heart.

By day, our economy looks respectable. GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate last quarter, unemployment is around 4%, and the stock market keeps setting records. I wrote about GDP when it came out and my verdict was: meh. Quarterly numbers are noisy. The past few years of growth have been slow.

By night, hiring rates are the lowest in decades, savings rates are falling, and consumer sentiment is in the cellar. Stacey’s point is that this split may feel worse than everyone struggling together. Those who aren’t doing great know other people are, and they feel left behind and angry. And there’s plenty of anger going around right now.

Prices are outrunning paychecks

Since April, average prices have been rising faster than average wages. This shows up everywhere, even in your trick-or-treat basket: Stacey reports that a bag of Halloween candy costs about 70% more than it did five years ago.

But I’m not sure that’s the whole story. The trajectory of the average of the economy isn’t the average trajectory of your life. Most of us don’t have wage growth that follows the statistical average. We earn raises through actions: changing jobs, getting degrees, climbing ladders. Stacey’s first writing job was at Idaho Weddings (which is easily the single best fact ever revealed on this show). She might not have been making big bucks then, but she’s continued to out-earn her younger self every decade since. But the catch is that this requires movement, and right now many places aren’t hiring.

AI is a haunted house

We’re all in here together, and it’s dark, and we don’t know what’s around the corner. The jump-scare could come anytime. My daughter is a senior in high school and her parents are economists who study AI and labor. The best advice we’ve got is: follow your passions! (And probably don’t become a translator.)

The kids are alright

It’s not all gloom and darkness. I teach students, and they are vitally interested in the world. They remind me that there’s so much future ahead. Every time I talk to them, I walk away a little bit more optimistic.

I lost a bet

Six months ago was Stacey’s first Off the Clock. That day, we made a bet on where gas prices would be on the eve of this election. I said under $3.60 a gallon. At the time, I thought I was being pessimistic — we’d been told this would be a four-to-six-week war, after all.

It turns out I was a sunny optimist (as usual). I now owe $200 to a platypus charity. I’ve picked the platypuses at Taronga Zoo in Sydney. $200 doesn’t buy us naming rights, but we’re calling ours Gus anyway.

Costume Versus Costume

Stacey loves Halloween, and she’s very creative (she made the amazing charts here), and so this week we did Costume Versus Costume. Both costumes are economic, and nerdy, and have multiple parts. If you want to see them, watch the video, then vote below for the best costume.

And finally, happy Halloween. It’s actually my anniversary(ish). I met a gal at a Halloween party 29 years ago. She’s still my gal. It’s always been a special holiday for us. I hope it is for you, too.