Remember the cheers that tankers were coming to the USA? Well they came because oil we had was sold to them. We now have a critical shortage of diesel, marine diesel and jet fuel. Normally we stockpile for the winter when there is increased demand for heating oil and shipping of all the stuff we buy at the holidays.
We are also nearing the rock bottom of our strategic petroleum reserves at which we could not supply our military in a war. But because it’s so low, we don’t know how much we really have. To extract it, they pump in water. We don’t know the critical point at which it becomes salad dressing as we have never been there before.
The political situation in Saudi Arabia and Yemen is ensuring this continues.
So don’t make any predictions for lower fuel prices.
This was amazing! Still have to think through Scotty Bravado and the apples a little more, but I think I get the gist. Pluto chart is such a great visual!
in my opinion "bond jargon" such as the "real rate of return" of the benchmark Treasury 10 year Bond using the change in the Divisia M$ money supply as proxy for inflation has been negative for majority of the 21st century as demonstrated by the attached chart. Another "bond jargon" "term premia" would add another 1-2% to the real rate of return so I conclude that at Divisia money supply growth latest 7.9% plus term premier of 1% the 10 year Treasury should yield 9% not 5%
Justin’s chart less snazzy but I understood its story immediately in one glance. Took me a few seconds of pinching and blowing up Stacey’s chart to figure out what it was saying. Is there a time dimension? Wait, are these planets all just balls of $1 bills? Why do we have solar system theme then? Maybe some planets are made of other denominations? Is Pluto counted here as a planet? Is this just a riff on ST60 saying Debt Big?
I’ve yet to see discussion of the irony between A. Trump’s bitching about how much we have subsidized NATO by providing its defense, and B. Now that he’s made it clear they are on their own, we should expect relief on our defense expenditures. Instead he wants to spend 50% more. Is there any explanation other than military/industrial welfare? Especially at the dawn of cheap drone warfare! Oh I forgot, we’ve thumbed our nose and ceded that to Canada/Ukraine/Europe.
Lettuce agree that people cannot live on lettuce alone, no matter how much we wish Trump would leaf us alone!
Thank you once again for making a topic accessible to those of us who are not economists.
Omg... dad joke poetry
Terrific show!
Remember the cheers that tankers were coming to the USA? Well they came because oil we had was sold to them. We now have a critical shortage of diesel, marine diesel and jet fuel. Normally we stockpile for the winter when there is increased demand for heating oil and shipping of all the stuff we buy at the holidays.
We are also nearing the rock bottom of our strategic petroleum reserves at which we could not supply our military in a war. But because it’s so low, we don’t know how much we really have. To extract it, they pump in water. We don’t know the critical point at which it becomes salad dressing as we have never been there before.
The political situation in Saudi Arabia and Yemen is ensuring this continues.
So don’t make any predictions for lower fuel prices.
Excellent! I’m going to listen to it all again.
Yes Platypus pillow merch! 🤩
Right?
If I don't get a platypus pillow, I'll bulldoze the Kennedy Center!
This was amazing! Still have to think through Scotty Bravado and the apples a little more, but I think I get the gist. Pluto chart is such a great visual!
in my opinion "bond jargon" such as the "real rate of return" of the benchmark Treasury 10 year Bond using the change in the Divisia M$ money supply as proxy for inflation has been negative for majority of the 21st century as demonstrated by the attached chart. Another "bond jargon" "term premia" would add another 1-2% to the real rate of return so I conclude that at Divisia money supply growth latest 7.9% plus term premier of 1% the 10 year Treasury should yield 9% not 5%
https://share.icloud.com/photos/0b5LV7MazlEqh9VAAGOnGAu3w
Epic interview
Thanks again…
Terrific explanation of the bond market. I was trying to comment semi-intelligently on the topic recently and ended up exploring the notion of heightened disclosure requirements for U.S. treasuries. Would appreciate any thoughts on the idea: https://criscitello.substack.com/p/the-worlds-most-important-official?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=reaction&utm_medium=email&utm_content=post
Justin’s chart less snazzy but I understood its story immediately in one glance. Took me a few seconds of pinching and blowing up Stacey’s chart to figure out what it was saying. Is there a time dimension? Wait, are these planets all just balls of $1 bills? Why do we have solar system theme then? Maybe some planets are made of other denominations? Is Pluto counted here as a planet? Is this just a riff on ST60 saying Debt Big?
Pluto is a planet.. I will die on this hill
Yes. Just a way to say our debt is big (but REALLY big!)
Thank you from the south side of our Gordie Howe International Bridge.
I’ve yet to see discussion of the irony between A. Trump’s bitching about how much we have subsidized NATO by providing its defense, and B. Now that he’s made it clear they are on their own, we should expect relief on our defense expenditures. Instead he wants to spend 50% more. Is there any explanation other than military/industrial welfare? Especially at the dawn of cheap drone warfare! Oh I forgot, we’ve thumbed our nose and ceded that to Canada/Ukraine/Europe.
What do Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland all have in common?
Rates going up anyway is the part I would build a position around, because it says the decision
is being made by the market rather than the committee. The question that follows is how long
the next round of support holds. Short piece that puts dates and probabilities on exactly that, in
plain words.
https://read.solsticelabs.com/japan-note-2-35