Is Inflation Going to Ruin the Summer?

Off the Clock with Justin Wolfers (and guest Stacey Vanek Smith)

I’m back on the mic with Stacey Vanek Smith, unwinding some of the week’s biggest stories in economic news.

First up, we’ve got the arrival of a new Fed Chair — Handsome Kevin. Stacey and I dig into the mystery of “the two Kevin Warshes.” Is the new chair the inflation hawk we saw during the financial crisis, or a more political figure willing to echo President Trump’s demands for lower interest rates?

Next, we talk Bond Market 101: why the U.S. government sells Treasury bonds, why investors buy them, and what rising 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields signal about inflation, oil prices, and the national debt.

And finally, we take on the stunning recent collapse in consumer sentiment. I argue that these historically bleak numbers are not the result of having “the worst economy ever,“ but largely reflect Americans losing confidence in those who manage our country’s economic policy. That said, the affordability crunch is real — with inflation hitting some summertime staples particularly hard.

Be sure to share and subscribe if you enjoyed our conversation! We’ll be back next time on video.

In the meantime, check out the bet Stacey and I made about midterm gas prices. You can register your own wager (fake money only!) on Manifold Markets here: