Global Tariffs Are Back. Did They Ever Really Leave?
Trump discovers forced labor. No-one knows where.
Last Friday, I joined Matt Frei on The Fourcast, alongside the FT’s Soumaya Keynes. She’s one of the sharpest folks in the world on tariffs and trade policy, and I learn a lot whenever I hear from her. As you might guess, our task was to talk through the latest chapter in America’s never-ending 24/7 tariff saga.
The latest iteration of Trump’s zombie tariffs cover nearly 99% of US imports — this time justified by the president’s sudden, deeply touching concern for forced labor around the world. While there’s not really any evidence that most of the countries the President is tariffing actually use forced labor, they’re being accused of not adequately policing it in their own imports — something that’s nearly impossible for any country to fully enforce.
The real giveaway that these tariffs aren’t about forced labor at all is their design: Countries judged “really bad” get a 12.5% tariff, while the “merely bad” get 10%. A 2.5%-point spread is hardly an incentive to reform — it’s a legal costume, and every world leader knows it.
Yes, we’ve dug into the logic of “forced labor” tariffs that aren’t really about forced labor before…
Here’s your chance for a refresher:
While the legal rationale for this latest set of tariffs borders on the absurd (or rather, sails right past it), the consequences are far less funny. By the administration’s own stated goals, these tariffs are failing: the trade deficit has barely budged, there’s no manufacturing boom, and it’s Americans footing the bill.
But the greatest damage probably isn’t in any of those numbers — it’s in the chaos itself. A tariff that’s on Monday, off Tuesday, and back on Wednesday is Schrödinger’s trade policy: simultaneously in force and enjoined until someone opens the Federal Register. No CFO in history has approved a billion dollar plant on the basis of a tariff regime likely to be relitigated, renegotiated, and reinvented before the concrete has been poured. It doesn’t even do the one thing a bad tax can usually be relied on to do, which is raise money reliably. It’s the worst of all worlds, engineered from scratch.
Give the episode a listen; I promise it’s the most fun you can have contemplating a slow-motion policy disaster.
Justin: is the platypus on the arm of the couch behind you for sale somewhere? I want one! Plus, you are always a great listen/read. Thanks.
Regarding the FACT of manufacturing employment falling, here are recent examples nearby to me the past few months (link to documentation of each job loss). Doesn't comport with claims of unfair foreign competitors exploiting slave labor
3/4/2026: Auto parts giant closes 2 Indiana facilities, hundreds out of work - https://fox59.com/indiana-news/auto-parts-giant-closes-2-indiana-facilities-hundreds-out-of-work/ quote: First Brands Group filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy last September. The auto parts giant also faces legal issues with several executives charged in a multi-billion-dollar fraud scheme {fraud doesn't sound like forced labor}
3/10/2026: Kem Krest notice of facility closing (77 employee terminations) under Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) - https://www.in.gov/dwd/files/warnnotices/Kem-Krest-WARN-Act-Notice-to-IN-DWD-Carmel-IN-plant-closing.pdf quote: ...due to declining sales, current and projected business needs, and business priorities... {no reference to forced labor}
5/5/2026: Cummins closing Whitestown plant, terminating nearly 60 employees - https://www.wthr.com/article/news/local/cummins-closing-whitestown-plant-terminating-almost-60-employees-indianapolis-indiana-business-money-news/531-47bdb6e2-d75d-4c76-a2e6-70bf4745226a quote: According to Cummins, the company decided to "consolidate the operation into multi RDC's for a more cohesive operation," meaning the entire site will be closing. {consolidating across company's existing Retail Distribution Centers doesn't seem like a forced labor issue}
6/26/2026: Over 100 employees to be laid off at Campbell’s plant in southern Indiana - https://fox59.com/news/over-100-employees-to-be-laid-off-at-campbells-plant-in-southern-indiana/ quote: Campbell’s attributed the closure to “manufacturing network optimization initiatives” but did not provide any additional information related to the closure. {could that refer to workforce adjustment to better compete with forced labor?}
6/30/26: Indiana auto systems maker to shut down Terre Haute plant, cut 207 jobs - https://www.wishtv.com/news/business/indiana-auto-systems-maker-to-shut-down-terre-haute-plant-cut-207-jobs/ quote: In the notice, CEO Yashar Kazemi cited “current business circumstances” as the reason for the decision. {probably not forced labor related, since other reporting says company moving this production next door to Ohio}