In my opinion your view of the American economics impact of the embargo on Cuba misses the positive impact on the United States economy. For example. approximately 1.3 to 2 million individuals who were born in Cuba or claim Cuban ancestry live as U.S. residents and citizens, with a total foreign-born Cuban population approaching 1.3 million, accumulated over six decades since the 1960-1961 economic embargo and sanctions. Roughly 2 million U.S. residents are either born in Cuba or of direct Cuban descent.Foreign-Born Count: Close to 1.3 million Cuban-born immigrants reside in the United States, representing one of the largest Hispanic and Caribbean groups.
About 76% of Cuban immigrants live in Florida, predominantly in the Greater Miami area.Recent Inflows: Over 500,000 additional Cubans have migrated to the U.S. amid recent economic and humanitarian crises and a large number of highly educated professionals—including doctors, lawyers, and engineers—have arrived from Cuba, primarily during specific waves of migration i.e. "Golden Exile" (1959–1962) This group consisted heavily of Cuba’s upper and middle classes, including elite professionals, business owners, and academics. The flight of thousands of doctors, lawyers, engineers, and teachers created an immediate professional shortage in Cuba and a major "brain drain". Because they faced licensing barriers, the U.S. government established special re-certification and transition programs to help these professionals rebuild their status, allowing them to anchor Miami's early economic transformation.
As the decades progressed, later migration waves shifted from elite professionals to individuals escaping severe economic crises. Even in recent decades, doctors and healthcare workers remain a unique exception. Cuba's state education system places an exceptionally heavy emphasis on medical training.Thousands of medical professionals have continued to defect or emigrate to the U.S. over the years.Consequently, George Washington University researchers found that Cuban Americans are significantly well-represented in advanced-degree healthcare professions (like physicians and dentists) compared to other Hispanic groups. While the first generation faced language barriers and professional recertification hurdles, their children excelled. U.S.-born Cuban Americans exhibit incredibly high educational attainment. Approximately 45% of U.S.-born Cubans hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, outperforming both the general U.S. population average (37%) and the overall Hispanic average (22%).
Therefore please do not describe the embargo of Cuba for millions of Cuban Americans and for the United States economy as a complete policy failure without analysis of the full picture.
Marc - you're providing some very worthwhile info here, primarily some strong evidence of ways that immigration benefits the United States economically. And not just that - you allude to social & family values Cuban immigrants brought with them (pro-education, focus on health care) - ¡Bienvenidos, vecinos Cubanos!
Of course, the Trump admin anti-immigrant policies of Stephen Miller work against all these positive gains. The impact on Cuban-heritage residents of Florida are especially profound & personal, but the entire Florida economy and broader culture are suffering, and the shockwaves continue to spread out from there. Creating concerns about past grants of asylum continuing to be honored, cancellation of CHNV parole (for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, & Venezuelans), revocation of green card/permanent residence approvals, widespread racial profiling & harassment by federal agents - all these recent actions under Trump are potential threats to Cuban Americans' freedom to remain safely & peaceably in the US.
I do question your characterization that Justin described the embargo "for millions of Cuban Americans and for the United States economy as a complete policy failure" - as I read the article I didn't notice Justin reflecting on the embargo's impacts for either Cuban Americans or for the United States economy at all (didn't notice the words "complete" and "failure" in the article either). To me, his gist is that the embargo failed at its goal of unseating the Castro regime (and its successor, to date) - from which we might take some lessons for our current approach to Iran. The declassified report Justin linked from the National Security Archive shows our government was told this in 1982, yet we've continued much of the same approach since then, occasionally dialing the pressures down or up under different administrations.
If the US goal for the Cuban embargo was to stimulate emigration from and siphon off that country's more wealthy, educated, or elite population, thereby to add resources to the US economy and social/cultural fabric, I join you in calling that a success (Justin might too). I'd question that policy, though, and am disturbed about neighboring countries poaching each others' resources by such economic & military means as we've applied to Cuba throughout most of my 7 decades.
Dear Dr. Wolfers. Interesting thoughts from you, as usual, as expected. An economic D-Day for Iran? What a laugh. I understand the Carney administration in Ottawa is seeking to enhance trading arrangements with the EU. The EU has recognized the EU is no longer a defender of their respective borders. The economic ploy will draw Iran closer to China, which ensures Iran's economic stability. The Trump administration has lost the war with Iran, utilizing brute force, and has no idea or strategy to exit the disaster. Military muscle failed; as a last grasp, increased economic pressure, yet to be defined or tested, will be tried. One last thought: rig the US midterms through voter suppression so two more years of undefined solutions can be invoked.
Since I'm beginning to lose my inner Zen, suggest our community review the Ben Norton report from the 8/15/26 Geopolitical Economy Report. The report covers the mystery of US wealth distribution, analyzing the mean, median, and concentration within the US. For a quick preview, the US ranks, 2nd in mean wealth, 28th in median wealth, and wealth distribution is off the charts, resembling the economy of the Middle Ages feudal period. Enjoy.
Justin Wolfers, you are breath of fresh air. You make sense. You provide data. You consider what has happened in the past that might shed light on our current circumstances. I really appreciate the history lesson on Cuba. And you point out how we continue to disregard the plight of ordinary people. Ordinary people in Iran. Ordinary people in Cuba. And the rest of us ordinary Americans who will no doubt suffer the miserable consequences of our incompetent current regime. And, while it's totally unscientific, it just seems nuts to me that anyone would think that torturing ordinary people would have the effect of making them love their torturers. Thanks for a terrific post.
This was so interesting Jason. Comparing it even slightly with how sanctions worked against Cuba tells me that it is not going to work with Iran. Both those countries have/had their populations under their thumb. All Iran has to continue doing is remind people that Americans have been killing them in the thousands. They never came to “liberate” them as they said. I also think that America and Israel have created even more enemies with this war. Neither country is safer. The little dicktator in the White House needs to go. If the Israelis truly want to feel safe then they have to stop using their fire power to wipe out thousands of innocent people. There is no army in Gaza dropping bombs on them. The only way to be safe is through peaceful negotiations that recognise that the Palestinians people have a right to exist. Not just them.
A (tangential?) personal reflection on the Cuban embargo... somewhere around here in a box of memorabilia I've got a page from a small town Ohio newspaper; the date is early 1963, a few months after the Cuban missile crisis. Kept in our family because it has a photo of our smiling faces as we congratulate our parish priest on his elevation to monsignor (small town, big news😊). Elsewhere on that crumbling, yellowed page of newsprint is a small item about the US embargo against Cuba and the anticipation that it would soon bring Castro and his regime to its knees. If there were politicians quoted in that article, I assume they're all long gone, as is Castro, as is the monsignor, as are some of my fam in the photo. Me & the embargo, we're hanging in there... maybe a little worse for the wear, a bit different than we looked in 1963. I like to believe I've gotten some good accomplished during my years since 1963. I can see (and so love!) my kids & grandkids living out the proof! The embargo tho...?
In my opinion your view of the American economics impact of the embargo on Cuba misses the positive impact on the United States economy. For example. approximately 1.3 to 2 million individuals who were born in Cuba or claim Cuban ancestry live as U.S. residents and citizens, with a total foreign-born Cuban population approaching 1.3 million, accumulated over six decades since the 1960-1961 economic embargo and sanctions. Roughly 2 million U.S. residents are either born in Cuba or of direct Cuban descent.Foreign-Born Count: Close to 1.3 million Cuban-born immigrants reside in the United States, representing one of the largest Hispanic and Caribbean groups.
About 76% of Cuban immigrants live in Florida, predominantly in the Greater Miami area.Recent Inflows: Over 500,000 additional Cubans have migrated to the U.S. amid recent economic and humanitarian crises and a large number of highly educated professionals—including doctors, lawyers, and engineers—have arrived from Cuba, primarily during specific waves of migration i.e. "Golden Exile" (1959–1962) This group consisted heavily of Cuba’s upper and middle classes, including elite professionals, business owners, and academics. The flight of thousands of doctors, lawyers, engineers, and teachers created an immediate professional shortage in Cuba and a major "brain drain". Because they faced licensing barriers, the U.S. government established special re-certification and transition programs to help these professionals rebuild their status, allowing them to anchor Miami's early economic transformation.
As the decades progressed, later migration waves shifted from elite professionals to individuals escaping severe economic crises. Even in recent decades, doctors and healthcare workers remain a unique exception. Cuba's state education system places an exceptionally heavy emphasis on medical training.Thousands of medical professionals have continued to defect or emigrate to the U.S. over the years.Consequently, George Washington University researchers found that Cuban Americans are significantly well-represented in advanced-degree healthcare professions (like physicians and dentists) compared to other Hispanic groups. While the first generation faced language barriers and professional recertification hurdles, their children excelled. U.S.-born Cuban Americans exhibit incredibly high educational attainment. Approximately 45% of U.S.-born Cubans hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, outperforming both the general U.S. population average (37%) and the overall Hispanic average (22%).
Therefore please do not describe the embargo of Cuba for millions of Cuban Americans and for the United States economy as a complete policy failure without analysis of the full picture.
Marc - you're providing some very worthwhile info here, primarily some strong evidence of ways that immigration benefits the United States economically. And not just that - you allude to social & family values Cuban immigrants brought with them (pro-education, focus on health care) - ¡Bienvenidos, vecinos Cubanos!
Of course, the Trump admin anti-immigrant policies of Stephen Miller work against all these positive gains. The impact on Cuban-heritage residents of Florida are especially profound & personal, but the entire Florida economy and broader culture are suffering, and the shockwaves continue to spread out from there. Creating concerns about past grants of asylum continuing to be honored, cancellation of CHNV parole (for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, & Venezuelans), revocation of green card/permanent residence approvals, widespread racial profiling & harassment by federal agents - all these recent actions under Trump are potential threats to Cuban Americans' freedom to remain safely & peaceably in the US.
I do question your characterization that Justin described the embargo "for millions of Cuban Americans and for the United States economy as a complete policy failure" - as I read the article I didn't notice Justin reflecting on the embargo's impacts for either Cuban Americans or for the United States economy at all (didn't notice the words "complete" and "failure" in the article either). To me, his gist is that the embargo failed at its goal of unseating the Castro regime (and its successor, to date) - from which we might take some lessons for our current approach to Iran. The declassified report Justin linked from the National Security Archive shows our government was told this in 1982, yet we've continued much of the same approach since then, occasionally dialing the pressures down or up under different administrations.
If the US goal for the Cuban embargo was to stimulate emigration from and siphon off that country's more wealthy, educated, or elite population, thereby to add resources to the US economy and social/cultural fabric, I join you in calling that a success (Justin might too). I'd question that policy, though, and am disturbed about neighboring countries poaching each others' resources by such economic & military means as we've applied to Cuba throughout most of my 7 decades.
Dear Dr. Wolfers. Interesting thoughts from you, as usual, as expected. An economic D-Day for Iran? What a laugh. I understand the Carney administration in Ottawa is seeking to enhance trading arrangements with the EU. The EU has recognized the EU is no longer a defender of their respective borders. The economic ploy will draw Iran closer to China, which ensures Iran's economic stability. The Trump administration has lost the war with Iran, utilizing brute force, and has no idea or strategy to exit the disaster. Military muscle failed; as a last grasp, increased economic pressure, yet to be defined or tested, will be tried. One last thought: rig the US midterms through voter suppression so two more years of undefined solutions can be invoked.
Since I'm beginning to lose my inner Zen, suggest our community review the Ben Norton report from the 8/15/26 Geopolitical Economy Report. The report covers the mystery of US wealth distribution, analyzing the mean, median, and concentration within the US. For a quick preview, the US ranks, 2nd in mean wealth, 28th in median wealth, and wealth distribution is off the charts, resembling the economy of the Middle Ages feudal period. Enjoy.
Justin Wolfers, you are breath of fresh air. You make sense. You provide data. You consider what has happened in the past that might shed light on our current circumstances. I really appreciate the history lesson on Cuba. And you point out how we continue to disregard the plight of ordinary people. Ordinary people in Iran. Ordinary people in Cuba. And the rest of us ordinary Americans who will no doubt suffer the miserable consequences of our incompetent current regime. And, while it's totally unscientific, it just seems nuts to me that anyone would think that torturing ordinary people would have the effect of making them love their torturers. Thanks for a terrific post.
This was so interesting Jason. Comparing it even slightly with how sanctions worked against Cuba tells me that it is not going to work with Iran. Both those countries have/had their populations under their thumb. All Iran has to continue doing is remind people that Americans have been killing them in the thousands. They never came to “liberate” them as they said. I also think that America and Israel have created even more enemies with this war. Neither country is safer. The little dicktator in the White House needs to go. If the Israelis truly want to feel safe then they have to stop using their fire power to wipe out thousands of innocent people. There is no army in Gaza dropping bombs on them. The only way to be safe is through peaceful negotiations that recognise that the Palestinians people have a right to exist. Not just them.
A (tangential?) personal reflection on the Cuban embargo... somewhere around here in a box of memorabilia I've got a page from a small town Ohio newspaper; the date is early 1963, a few months after the Cuban missile crisis. Kept in our family because it has a photo of our smiling faces as we congratulate our parish priest on his elevation to monsignor (small town, big news😊). Elsewhere on that crumbling, yellowed page of newsprint is a small item about the US embargo against Cuba and the anticipation that it would soon bring Castro and his regime to its knees. If there were politicians quoted in that article, I assume they're all long gone, as is Castro, as is the monsignor, as are some of my fam in the photo. Me & the embargo, we're hanging in there... maybe a little worse for the wear, a bit different than we looked in 1963. I like to believe I've gotten some good accomplished during my years since 1963. I can see (and so love!) my kids & grandkids living out the proof! The embargo tho...?