12 Comments
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Steve Maurice's avatar

Great explanation! Increasing demand certainly will not make a limited supply cheaper. Makes perfect sense. I'd invite you to my dinner parties. 😉

Justin Wolfers's avatar

Thank you! It can be tough out here for an economist.

Patricia's avatar

Thanks for making sense of this issue!!!

BabsPHL's avatar

If trump had some REAL knowledgeable people around him, like you Justin, we'd be in good if not great shape now, instead of teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Trump is a known quantity, bankrupt 6+ times, yet elected to be the "business guru" leader?? If he had wise advisors this could all be avoided; but then loyalty to a deluded disturbed demonic dunce trumps any reason and common sense. I just hope he's sinking himself before he sinks the United States!

Sharon Herrick's avatar

Well, duh. This is not a criticism of your lively and lovely explanation and analysis, it's a comment on the sheer obvious simplicity and truth here that just about anyone---even an unstable idiot could understand. Don't increase demand if you have a supply problem. It hurts, really, to think that leaders of all stripes seem to want to "play to the crowd" or hoodwink the voters by using ploys like a "gas tax holiday"--or simply don't get it? And what does is say about the voters---who apparently fall for it more often than not? Sorry you're making the same case as you did 18 years ago. Must be terribly frustrating.

Protect the Vote's avatar

Cheeto’s Spendthrift Economy

Many commentators on the US economy as well as economists have for the last 8 to 18mo and longer have been sounding the alarm over the growing national debt Now with the Iranian war over $39T and growing Cheeto continues to recklessly spend thinking that a war time economy may bail him out Of course Cheeto who drove businesses into the ground going bankrupt 5 times is now in charge of the upcoming Great Depression 2.0 and will botch its management much like he did COVID due to his inability to manage anything since he relies on “gut instinct” to guide his management

Potential foreign investors who help pay for our debt are becoming risk adverse HSBC, the second largest European bank, is now sounding the alarm(https://bit.ly/42Tl15s) implying that foreign investment which now amounts to $40-50T in T bills will need to be compensated for the risk they take on This means that the yield on treasuries will have to go higher, meaning that the US will fast approach a point when the country will not be able to afford its debl

5% is the magic number for 10y T bills It is the level where the debt is unsustainable without default

The Fed has two tools in its toolbox, interest rates and money printing In this precarious financial situation those tool do little to help in the long run particularly with a reckless overspending Cheeto government

TLO's avatar

Besides being afraid to reply since you’re so much smarter than me, two things really upset and worry me:

The sheer malice from leaders and the uber-wealthy who feed citizens daily lies, clearly thinking the public is too stupid to know better.

The sheer ignorance of too many people in this country who are so willing to accept these vapid explanations and outright lies.

Also, simply pointing at Trump or any single person makes me want to scream. We have a Congress and a Fed tasked with keeping things in check "for the good of all Americans." This isn't a one-person or one-administration issue. It's the system we developed, and it's broken.

When I talk to friends and acquaintances about the deficit and the potential outcomes of defaulting on our debt, a common answer I get is, "We can't go bankrupt; it's impossible. We just print more money."

Your article is incredibly informative and comprehensive, Justin, but it must be frustrating. I've been wanting to pull my own hair out just thinking about it! You have a lush head of hair that I'd hate to see diminished by you constantly pulling yours out, too.

How DO you stay sane?

Jim Carmichael's avatar

Brilliant. My English friend Nick (graduate of LSE) has been telling me this for years. Washington is so stupid sometimes.

scott m's avatar

Gas tax holidays…got to love those Zombie ideas!

Steven Stratton's avatar

Think it would be better if we sent the population of this country fuel cards or perhaps vouchers

VEE LAVALLEE's avatar

You make sense once again. If I read this right what's being proposed is just a spoonful of pablum to make you feel that you're eating but it's not enough to sustain you. The guy selling the pablum can make the only profit that's there. Damn please don't tell me I've got it wrong because I already know. I'll try harder sigh...

The Gritty Bee's avatar

This regime’s data analytics seems less sophisticated than 1.0 Really making a lot of rookie mistakes. Excellent supply side analysis!