Sifting Through the Wreckage of An Ill-Informed War
And a presidency that favors extraction over growth
Now that the war with Iran is maybe(?) over, I dig into the lasting economic damage with Slate’s Mary Harris.
So far, oil prices have been where Americans have felt the costs of war most acutely. But while they will certainly decline with the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, we should expect a bill for years to come.
To truly understand the full price tag, we have to get the counterfactual right. The correct comparison is not today’s situation compared to yesterday’s. But today versus what it would have been without the war. So yes, energy prices will fall, but futures markets tell us that they'll still remain a lot higher than they would have been without the war.
But there are broader costs, too — an estimated $200-$400 hit to U.S. output due to rising geopolitical risk. (We can extrapolate this estimate combining estimates of how sharply risk has grown from the Federal Reserve’s Geopolitical Risk Index, with historical estimates of the growth-risk nexus.)
We also know the consequences are much greater elsewhere in the world, in places that had even less say than the American people in starting this conflict. That’s particularly true in the world’s poorest regions where a significantly larger portion of household income is spent on energy and food — the two commodities hit hardest by war-fueled inflation.
Ultimately, this war is a symptom of something even larger — a “post-contract presidency” defined by Trump’s habitual lying and unreliability. While often a source of nihilistic humor, it has real, measurable economic costs. Progress is not guaranteed, particularly when institutions begin to falter and prioritize extraction over growth.
Our conversation ends with a point I’ve been trying to emphasize recently: being pro-market is not the same thing as being pro-business. Competition — not business itself — is the true engine of prosperity. Unfortunately, Trump’s second-term economy has consistently favored business over competition — undermining very forces that drive innovation and deliver for the American people.
Great discussion. I am so glad I subscribed!
Nazi Republican Election Interference: The Stolen 2024 Midterm Election
A malignant narcissist will do anything to win, especially if it keeps him out of jail or another trial after indictment by the DOJ. Enter a Muskrat who says to Cheeto, “I can help”(bit.ly/3QRbKs7). Then Ashley St Clair an intelligent articulate MAGA supporter who becomes one of Muskrat’s surrogate mothers, sees postpartum the real Muskrat and decides to jump ship and tell all, particularly about the immoral MAGA crowd as well as how the Muskrat was technologically going to manipulate 2024(interview with Waj Ali bit.ly/4ozIGlg). Cheeto and the corrupt immoral Nazi machine gets behind the effort and viola! WE the People get the Nazi Republicans.
There are clear actions being taken to counter external election subversion(gerrymandering, prevent goon squads from polling locations, vigilante challenges, planning your vote, encouraging high voter turnout and more). But what about internal election subversion? What if someone is altering voting tabulations in real time? Does that negate external election subversion? I’d suggest yes.
Now there are many skeptics who disagree with all the circumstantial evidence that points to internal election subversion. The argument goes that they need concrete objective data in order to push back against a supposed election conspiracy. But the subjective gut feeling is there’s some rot in the 2024 election results and now in Republican primaries. There is so much circumstantial evidence to point to a crime having been or being committed. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
A ballot audit is not the same thing as a cyber forensic audit? What do WE have to lose except our democracy?