Krugman just released a short video on the survey as well. His worry was medium term inflation expectations were up, possibly to a level suggesting entrenched inflation….seems a bit extreme to me, this is not 1980, but I’m not an economist.
I do think a lot of this is vibes. People are angry and fearful. The GOP has spent years deriding ‘so called experts’. So people don’t believe the data, they just know they’re scared, and therefore things are horrible.
That’s an interesting question. As I’m sure you know, there’s a bunch of smart people looking at why consumer sentiment has gotten so decoupled from actual economic conditions, but I haven’t heard this as a possible explanation before.
Could you tell us what "consumer sentiment" actually measures? Are your colleagues asking: "How do you feel about the economy? About your own financial circumstances? About you own or your children's prospects?" Perhaps consumer sentiment is a kind of "vibe measure" and therefore not closely tied to actual economic reality. Still. Whatever it is measuring, these numbers speak volumes. Could be about anger, frustration, depression or....fear?
Krugman just released a short video on the survey as well. His worry was medium term inflation expectations were up, possibly to a level suggesting entrenched inflation….seems a bit extreme to me, this is not 1980, but I’m not an economist.
I do think a lot of this is vibes. People are angry and fearful. The GOP has spent years deriding ‘so called experts’. So people don’t believe the data, they just know they’re scared, and therefore things are horrible.
Good call, Justin!
That’s an interesting question. As I’m sure you know, there’s a bunch of smart people looking at why consumer sentiment has gotten so decoupled from actual economic conditions, but I haven’t heard this as a possible explanation before.
There is a reason why Spock had no emotions.
Do we have any idea who the people are who approve? I'm curious.
Could you tell us what "consumer sentiment" actually measures? Are your colleagues asking: "How do you feel about the economy? About your own financial circumstances? About you own or your children's prospects?" Perhaps consumer sentiment is a kind of "vibe measure" and therefore not closely tied to actual economic reality. Still. Whatever it is measuring, these numbers speak volumes. Could be about anger, frustration, depression or....fear?
Yikes!