I've been in the technology business since before it was a business and I agree with your assessment that people should broaden their AI skill set but I've learned two things. 1. What you think is AI will not stay AI. I recall the very first revolutionary, dedicate word processor that was going to replace every typist. It did not. What replaced typist was a young fellow named Bill Gates who created the WORD application on a PC which did not exist when the dedicated word processors were invented. Now everybody is a typist. So, there will be another Bill Gates that will truly create a simpler, faster, cheaper and and easy to use AI implementation. 2. As important is the lack of data center regulations. These sprawling, resource guzzling behemoths will be replaced by smaller, more efficient and less expensive alternatives which will render them obsolete. The current owners will abandon them at some point leaving communities to deal with remediation...and they will require that. Recall the superfund sites of the 1980's. In our industry you could always identify the pioneers...they were the ones with arrows in their back. So, sharpen your skills but keep your eyes open to a different future.
Sorry, but Adam Smith warned us of the dangers of monopolies/ologopolies. The example you need to wrestle with is the 1975 to 2015 computer and internet revolution. Mainframe computer companies largely went bankrupt, international supply chains destroyed small town factories, and the populations in many of those towns never rebounded.
The PC —IBM as an early PC leader didn’t change fast enough and is a tiny shadow of its former S&P ranking after nearly going bankrupt—eliminated a lot of secretarial/clerical jobs. As the Cambridge Analytica scandal showed, sociopathic media alters our politics. Since Reaganomics combined with tech, wealth inequality has skyrocketed. AI now nudifies our daughters, produces disinformation experts can’t detect, and the tech brologarchs buy up blocks worth of homes for their private compounds in multiple cities while most of us can’t buy a condo. They also barely pay taxes while upper middle class self employed workers face 50% (with state and FICA) marginal tax rates.
I fear what we are headed for is a tech bro feudal system. Those who enable their wealth and riches will share in their bounty, most of us will barely exist as they keep most of the value of our work and monopolize/ologopilize essential sectors. The rest will be homeless—and they’re sweeping away homeless encampments.
Justin, I have a question. For those who are more introverted and steer into the professions that are mot "touchy feely" or people focused (such as coding, accounting, etc as examples), How would you advise them in terms of preparing for the future with AI?
Jayne - a person with some mechanical interests (also helps if has focus & dedication) might want to look at skilled trades: plumbing, electrician, or HVAC (heating, ventilating & air conditioning). Each requires specialized training; finger/hand dexterity & some physical strength (e.g., lifting, carrying); problem solving using analysis & data; troubleshooting skills. Of course there's some customer contact; better people skills will earn better ratings & greater loyalty. But the job is primarily physical & brain, with observing, testing, manipulating, mentally planning then physically applying know how from both code books + experience - not likely to be done by robotics anytime soon. Data centers require all the above to function. And even the tech bro oligarchs want their AC cranking when it hits 45 degrees C, and will need someone to rescue their marble bathroom when the golden commode backs up
So, I watched this one in my cave on basement level. In the adjacent room two "laborers" were installing the new parts and accompanying metal work on the furnace that was needed with the new AC condenser being installed outside. One inside with furnace and one outside with compressor. I was asked by the one outside working on the new compressor to open the window between them so he could also listen like his partner on the inside to Justin's podcast. We all hung on every word while they worked and I sat and smoked my pipe. When Justin concluded there was some discussion about how their future looks. They feel good about it. Skill sets change...they adapt. For instance, one learned to be adept at "sweating pipe". But now the connections are made by a fancy big crimping tool. His learned skill is gone but the replacement is better...except...and that's the interesting part. When the connection is crimped it isn't as reversible as a soldered joint is...melt the solder and pull the copper apart. One has to surgically cut the outer sleeve without scoring the inner. Tricky. So then the discussion was about designing the cutting tool where you could dial in the thickness of the sleeve you want to cut pneumatically or electrically at the push of a button, etc. etc. Money would be made with that invention and, of course, a little chunk for Chuck. You get the idea.
Chuck - I understand that a working prototype isn't required to get a patent, but some diagrams & written details are... so you may want to flesh out the etc etc just wee bit more to be sure the Big Buck$ can flow your way 😃
Your spectator observations help illustrate my sense that AI/robotics won't be ready for prime trades soon at all. HVAC team might usually use the crimper today but will continue to run into repair of systems that were sweated; may still find a new situation where the old skill would still be used today - but for a robot, that's an entirely different set of physical movements and activities. The HVAC pickup likely carries both the crimp tool and a bernzOmatic torch, but a robot would need a whole different set of "hands" to perform the 2 job (is anyone claiming full human-level motion & dexterity in next few years, so as to use our current tools?). How often I've had to deal with small household repairs that required completely different tools & skill sets between my 1920 craftsman bungalow vs 1950s ranch homes (and one of those was bult by the homeowner himself, the other by a "real" contractor). How would you program machines to deal with a fault that shouldn't be there, except for that someone jury-rigged in a way no one would expect? Duct tape & glue, crank the bolt on crooked till it stays put with stripped threads, solder it down so it can't be unscrewed, etc. NOT up to code!
Lugnut will connect to Hive Command to signal “access CryoStorage Pod #74845c and engage reanimation sequence… we’re gonna need to thaw out Chuck & j to untangle this mess”
My understanding is that China has already made laws that say AI must be integrated in the way that does not take away jobs from employees and business. This would set the tone for AI feel better than anything else because AI would then be developed to assist and make people better not to replace them.
Shouldn’t there be an inherit skepticism when the people touting all of the benefits and providing all of the predictions of the AI future happen to also be the people who have the greatest investment in those things being true? If the headline reads “Guy who has spent billions on AI says it does the best job” I’m immediately flagging that.
I've been in the technology business since before it was a business and I agree with your assessment that people should broaden their AI skill set but I've learned two things. 1. What you think is AI will not stay AI. I recall the very first revolutionary, dedicate word processor that was going to replace every typist. It did not. What replaced typist was a young fellow named Bill Gates who created the WORD application on a PC which did not exist when the dedicated word processors were invented. Now everybody is a typist. So, there will be another Bill Gates that will truly create a simpler, faster, cheaper and and easy to use AI implementation. 2. As important is the lack of data center regulations. These sprawling, resource guzzling behemoths will be replaced by smaller, more efficient and less expensive alternatives which will render them obsolete. The current owners will abandon them at some point leaving communities to deal with remediation...and they will require that. Recall the superfund sites of the 1980's. In our industry you could always identify the pioneers...they were the ones with arrows in their back. So, sharpen your skills but keep your eyes open to a different future.
Justin,
Sorry, but Adam Smith warned us of the dangers of monopolies/ologopolies. The example you need to wrestle with is the 1975 to 2015 computer and internet revolution. Mainframe computer companies largely went bankrupt, international supply chains destroyed small town factories, and the populations in many of those towns never rebounded.
The PC —IBM as an early PC leader didn’t change fast enough and is a tiny shadow of its former S&P ranking after nearly going bankrupt—eliminated a lot of secretarial/clerical jobs. As the Cambridge Analytica scandal showed, sociopathic media alters our politics. Since Reaganomics combined with tech, wealth inequality has skyrocketed. AI now nudifies our daughters, produces disinformation experts can’t detect, and the tech brologarchs buy up blocks worth of homes for their private compounds in multiple cities while most of us can’t buy a condo. They also barely pay taxes while upper middle class self employed workers face 50% (with state and FICA) marginal tax rates.
I fear what we are headed for is a tech bro feudal system. Those who enable their wealth and riches will share in their bounty, most of us will barely exist as they keep most of the value of our work and monopolize/ologopilize essential sectors. The rest will be homeless—and they’re sweeping away homeless encampments.
Justin, I have a question. For those who are more introverted and steer into the professions that are mot "touchy feely" or people focused (such as coding, accounting, etc as examples), How would you advise them in terms of preparing for the future with AI?
Jayne - a person with some mechanical interests (also helps if has focus & dedication) might want to look at skilled trades: plumbing, electrician, or HVAC (heating, ventilating & air conditioning). Each requires specialized training; finger/hand dexterity & some physical strength (e.g., lifting, carrying); problem solving using analysis & data; troubleshooting skills. Of course there's some customer contact; better people skills will earn better ratings & greater loyalty. But the job is primarily physical & brain, with observing, testing, manipulating, mentally planning then physically applying know how from both code books + experience - not likely to be done by robotics anytime soon. Data centers require all the above to function. And even the tech bro oligarchs want their AC cranking when it hits 45 degrees C, and will need someone to rescue their marble bathroom when the golden commode backs up
So, I watched this one in my cave on basement level. In the adjacent room two "laborers" were installing the new parts and accompanying metal work on the furnace that was needed with the new AC condenser being installed outside. One inside with furnace and one outside with compressor. I was asked by the one outside working on the new compressor to open the window between them so he could also listen like his partner on the inside to Justin's podcast. We all hung on every word while they worked and I sat and smoked my pipe. When Justin concluded there was some discussion about how their future looks. They feel good about it. Skill sets change...they adapt. For instance, one learned to be adept at "sweating pipe". But now the connections are made by a fancy big crimping tool. His learned skill is gone but the replacement is better...except...and that's the interesting part. When the connection is crimped it isn't as reversible as a soldered joint is...melt the solder and pull the copper apart. One has to surgically cut the outer sleeve without scoring the inner. Tricky. So then the discussion was about designing the cutting tool where you could dial in the thickness of the sleeve you want to cut pneumatically or electrically at the push of a button, etc. etc. Money would be made with that invention and, of course, a little chunk for Chuck. You get the idea.
Chuck - I understand that a working prototype isn't required to get a patent, but some diagrams & written details are... so you may want to flesh out the etc etc just wee bit more to be sure the Big Buck$ can flow your way 😃
Your spectator observations help illustrate my sense that AI/robotics won't be ready for prime trades soon at all. HVAC team might usually use the crimper today but will continue to run into repair of systems that were sweated; may still find a new situation where the old skill would still be used today - but for a robot, that's an entirely different set of physical movements and activities. The HVAC pickup likely carries both the crimp tool and a bernzOmatic torch, but a robot would need a whole different set of "hands" to perform the 2 job (is anyone claiming full human-level motion & dexterity in next few years, so as to use our current tools?). How often I've had to deal with small household repairs that required completely different tools & skill sets between my 1920 craftsman bungalow vs 1950s ranch homes (and one of those was bult by the homeowner himself, the other by a "real" contractor). How would you program machines to deal with a fault that shouldn't be there, except for that someone jury-rigged in a way no one would expect? Duct tape & glue, crank the bolt on crooked till it stays put with stripped threads, solder it down so it can't be unscrewed, etc. NOT up to code!
You think some day, Lugnut, the service robot will look at a prospective project and say, "What a can of worms."?
Lugnut will connect to Hive Command to signal “access CryoStorage Pod #74845c and engage reanimation sequence… we’re gonna need to thaw out Chuck & j to untangle this mess”
Sorry I meant steer away from the professions that are more peope focused
My understanding is that China has already made laws that say AI must be integrated in the way that does not take away jobs from employees and business. This would set the tone for AI feel better than anything else because AI would then be developed to assist and make people better not to replace them.
Shouldn’t there be an inherit skepticism when the people touting all of the benefits and providing all of the predictions of the AI future happen to also be the people who have the greatest investment in those things being true? If the headline reads “Guy who has spent billions on AI says it does the best job” I’m immediately flagging that.